Market Analysis of Hybrid Bus

2016-01-07

September 2015, the Chinese passenger bus statistical information net more than 50 enterprises sales total 5 meters bus 158938 vehicles, up 1.19% from a year earlier, the passenger seat (highway bus) increased by 10.66%, school bus increases by 8.14%, the bus dropped by 11.60%. From the point of data structure, in the first half of 2015 passenger bus market is characteristic, the bus seat growth and decline in bus form the seesaw, rebound of large passenger seat and the surge of new energy bus to bus and coach industry is of great importance to the development of positive significance.

In September 1, 2015, 50 companies a total of 26 involved in new energy bus field, new energy bus and coach sales to 37363, up 213.19% year on year, among them, the hybrid passenger bus sales in 11052, up 45.54% from a year earlier, pure electric passenger bus sales in 26311, up 506.66% from a year earlier.The rapid development of new energy bus passenger bus market this year is the biggest attraction, SheZhenQing analyze the sales data, and summarized three features:
First of all, the new energy bus market share increase rapidly. New energy bus market share rapidly increase the impact on the industry mainly include five aspects: the first is although the industry overall sales growth is not obvious, but the passenger turnover growth of firms.New energy bus price is much higher than ordinary passenger buss, in 2015, although the coach industry sales performance is not strong, but revenue growth is very considerable.It is understood that bus enterprise's revenue year-on-year growth this year, most of the above sales growth.

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Second, the battery supply, cause capital high attention.At least 18 listed companies since 2015 overweight lithium battery project, investment amount exceeds 50 billion yuan, both the industry byd shares, lifan, there are also more like chengdu integration, del household, shanshan co, southeast, lucky film industries outside of the capital is accelerating into the battery industry.
The third aspect, the engine enterprise pressure.Under the impact of the new energy bus, bus engine companies struggling to cope with, for example, weichai WP5, WP7 engine in the first half of the total sales of 5905 units, fell 18.5% year on year, among them, 4548 sets of passenger bus market, fell 20.5% year on year.

New energy bus surged mainly rely on state subsidies to promote, without subsidies, there is no sales, in a plug-in hybrid electric bus has been verified. At present, new energy subsidies generally fall into "repair" and "fill", and "fill" and "fill" the proportion of the relationship between a lot of places are 1:1, although the state subsidies to new energy bus will continue until 2020, but the "patch" variable, as the base of new energy vehicles more and more big, the pressure of the local finance will be more and more big, want to "repair" and "fill" synchronized expectations will be more and more difficult to achieve.
In recent years, the expansion of the passenger bus market space is more and more small, weak exports, long-distance passenger transport contract, the school bus is not affected by policy support, these difficulties are not coach industry can digest and however, the development of new energy bus, for the passenger bus industry has brought a revolutionary expansion opportunities.From the point of development situation, new energy bus to substitute for the traditional bus has obviously, new energy bus market share has been as high as 47.81%, and the proportion is rising, groups of buses, tourist bus to substitute also gradually by the market recognition, with the constant improvement of technology, new energy bus of highway bus replacement has become a bus the research emphasis of the enterprise.In this sense, the passenger bus industry's future development will be at least 5-8 years of good times.
     
Finally, to enhance the anti-risk ability of passenger bus companies.Subsidies, current situation of the development of new energy bus, decided to the market, without subsidies, there is no sales, now is the biggest factor supporting the new energy bus rapid development policy subsidies, and is also the biggest new energy bus product constraints, once a product of a kind of new energy bus are eliminated in policy-related subsidies directory, the market also will be devastating, the past is one of the traditional hybrid buses, in the future, in a plug-in hybrid, electric, fuel cells, these products whether there is any luck, the answer is yes, and the risk increases with the attenuation of subsidies, to diluted this risk, continuously improve the product structure, the rich product spectrum, will better improve bus the anti-risk ability of the enterprise.